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EI

ETSY INC (ETSY)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue was $651.2M (+0.8% y/y), take rate reached a new quarterly high of 23.3%, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 26.3%; GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.49) due largely to a $101.7M non-cash impairment tied to Reverb .
  • GMS declined 6.5% y/y to $2.8B; Etsy marketplace GMS fell 8.9% y/y to $2.3B, with habitual buyers down 11% and GMS per active buyer down 3.5% to $120 .
  • Q2 2025 guidance: consolidated GMS decline similar to or slightly better than Q1, take rate similar to Q1, and adjusted EBITDA margin ~25% (reflecting higher marketing and people costs); guidance excludes Reverb sale impact .
  • Management emphasized growing app engagement (app reached an all-time high 44.5% of Etsy marketplace GMS) and personalization via AI/ML; Depop delivered strong growth, and Etsy announced sale of Reverb for $105M cash post-quarter, focusing resources on Etsy/Depop .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • App engagement and conversion improved; the app reached 44.5% of Etsy marketplace GMS, with upward trends in MAUs and first-time downloads: “the app reached an all-time high of 44.5% of total Etsy marketplace GMS” .
  • Take rate expanded 170 bps y/y to 23.3% on ads growth, seller setup fee, and payments expansion; adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.3% slightly exceeded expectations .
  • Depop posted its strongest quarter since acquisition with notable U.S. momentum, supported by performance and mid-funnel marketing efficiency .

What Went Wrong

  • Core Etsy marketplace GMS fell 8.9% y/y and active buyer metrics remained muted; habitual buyers declined 11% y/y and GMS per active buyer fell 3.5% to $120 .
  • GAAP net loss $(52.1)M driven by a $101.7M goodwill impairment for Reverb; net loss margin was (8.0)% .
  • Gross margin saw modest deleverage from higher ML/search compute and free shipping costs tied to the loyalty beta; marketing mix leaned more to paid social with lower ROIs than search/PLA, pressuring margins near term .

Financial Results

Consolidated Financials vs Prior Quarters

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$662.4 $852.2 $651.2
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.45 $1.03 $(0.49)
Net Income Margin (%)8.7% 15.2% (8.0)%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$183.6 $250.6 $171.1
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)27.7% 29.4% 26.3%
Take Rate (%)22.7% 22.8% 23.3%

Segment Revenue Breakdown

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Marketplace Revenue ($USD Millions)$476.1 $607.3 $458.5
Services Revenue ($USD Millions)$186.3 $244.9 $192.7

KPIs and Operating Metrics

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Consolidated GMS ($USD Billions)$2.92 $3.74 $2.79
Etsy Marketplace GMS ($USD Billions)$2.5 $3.3 $2.3
Active Buyers (Etsy marketplace, Millions)91.2 89.6 88.5
Habitual Buyers (Millions)6.8 6.4 6.2
GMS per Active Buyer ($)$123 $121 $120
Active Sellers (Etsy marketplace, Millions)6.2 5.6 5.4
App Share of Etsy Marketplace GMS (%)42% (FY 2024) 44.5% (Q1)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Consolidated GMSQ1 2025Decline similar to Q4 2024
Consolidated GMSQ2 2025Decline similar to or slightly better than Q1 2025 Maintained cautious outlook
Take RateQ1 2025~23%
Take RateQ2 2025Similar to Q1 25 Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA MarginQ1 2025~25–26%
Adjusted EBITDA MarginQ2 2025~25% Lower vs Q1 guide midpoint

Notes: Guidance assumes FX at current levels and excludes impact from planned Reverb sale .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
App engagement and personalizationEmphasis on app as marquee experience; ML in ads ranking App reached 42% of FY GMS; discovery-infused experiences App conversion up; app at 44.5% of marketplace GMS; “algotorial” curated discovery with AI/LLMs Strengthening
Ads and take rateScaling paid social; ML-adjusted feeds Etsy Ads drove Services revenue; bidding algorithm improvements On-site Ads growth; take rate 23.3% (+170 bps y/y) Improving efficiency
Loyalty (Etsy Insider)Beta introduced, free shipping benefit Beta continued; holiday campaigns Beta continued; free shipping cost a gross margin headwind Testing/optimization phase
Tariffs/de minimis exposureNot highlightedMacro/trade headwinds acknowledged “Just over 1%” of GMS is U.S. imports from China; de minimis $800 threshold key; replacement effects likely; watch demand impact Low direct exposure; macro demand risk
Quality/SearchSearch quality standards; reduce image duplicates ML for delivery estimates; Quality initiatives Rebuilt search with quality score; dynamic scoring reducing low-review purchases; seller guidance Advancing execution
SubsidiariesDepop fee changes; momentum Depop strong; Reverb holiday strategies Depop strong; Reverb sale for $105M to refocus on Etsy/Depop Portfolio simplification

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “the app reached an all-time high of 44.5% of total Etsy marketplace GMS… we’re creating truly personalized browsing and discovery journeys… genuinely game-changing for Etsy” .
  • CFO: “we delivered a small beat on take rate and adjusted EBITDA margin… take rate improved to 23.3%… adjusted EBITDA margin 26.3%” .
  • CEO on tariffs/agents: “just over 1% of GMS comes from U.S. imports… agents will offer choice… Etsy has something different… partnerships with leading GenAI providers” .
  • President/Chief Growth Officer: “biggest opportunities… give shoppers more compelling reasons to choose Etsy… build a more personalized, more delightful shopping experience” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Marketing mix: Greater spend in paid social (lower ROI than search/PLA), but improving efficiency; Q2 margin guide reflects higher marketing and compensation costs .
  • App roadmap: Push to highly personalized browsable surfaces; aim to shift mobile web to app over time .
  • Active sellers/buyers: New $29 seller setup fee intentionally reduced low-probability sellers; buyer softness attributed to macro vs churn; habitual buyers stable at ~42% of GMS .
  • Gross margin headwinds: ML/search compute and free shipping in loyalty beta both modest headwinds; will continue but not dramatic .
  • Tariffs/de minimis: Low direct exposure from China; watch for broader demand impacts and process changes if de minimis evolves .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $651.2M vs $641.6M* (beat); Primary EPS (normalized) $1.21 vs $1.01* (beat). Etsy does not report non-GAAP EPS in the release; S&P’s Primary EPS represents normalized earnings. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Q2 2025 consensus: Revenue $647.6M*; Primary EPS $1.09*; Management guides Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin ~25% and similar take rate to Q1 . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
MetricQ1 2025 ActualQ1 2025 Consensus*SurpriseQ2 2025 Consensus*
Revenue ($USD Millions)$651.2 $641.6*+$9.6$647.6*
Primary EPS ($)$1.21*$1.01*+$0.20$1.09*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term: Revenue and adjusted EBITDA were resilient despite GMS declines; the impairment-driven GAAP loss is non-cash. Expect margin compression in Q2 on higher marketing and people costs, but take rate should remain elevated .
  • Strategic: App-led personalization (“algotorial” + LLMs) is gaining traction; data flywheel from broader signal ingestion (ads + recommendations) should compound engagement/frequency .
  • Ads monetization: On-site Ads and Payments continue to lift take rate; sustained efficiency gains can support monetization even in softer demand environments .
  • Portfolio focus: Reverb divestiture streamlines capital allocation toward Etsy and Depop; Depop’s momentum provides diversification and growth optionality .
  • Risk monitor: Macro discretionary softness and evolving tariff/de minimis policies could weigh on buyer frequency; management sees high replacement and low direct exposure to China but remains cautious on demand elasticity .
  • KPI watch: Habitual buyer count and GMS per buyer remain pressured; app share and personalized engagement metrics are the leading indicators to track for inflection .
  • Estimates: Street likely nudges near-term margin expectations lower in line with guidance while acknowledging revenue/Primary EPS beat; sustained take rate and ad momentum can support multi-quarter monetization if engagement improvements continue .

Citations: Press release and 8-K Q1 2025 ; Q4 2024 press release ; Q3 2024 press release . Earnings call transcript Q1 2025 .